Monday, January 04, 2010

Eberle's Value

I was asked this question tonight on a WHL radio show

What could the Regina Pats get for Jordan Eberle should they decide to move him at the trade deadline.

It's a good question and one I think may set a new precedent should a trade take place.

His stock has never been higher. He's a player, a gamebreaker and someone a team lives or dies with. He makes that much of a difference.

A few years ago the Saskatoon Blades traded Devin Setoguchi for defensive prospect Stefan Elliot and the Cougars 1st pick overall in the 2008 bantam draft which turned out to be D Duncan Siemens (3rd overall).

Although a bidding war may dicate his final value, (again, if he's traded at all) I think the ransom in return should easily exceed what the Cougars paid.

Is he worth two first round picks in consecutive years plus a 16 year-old top prospect already playing in the WHL?

Perhaps it's a 1st round pick in 2010, a 3rd round in 2011, a 16 year-old prospect and an 18 year-old depth forward/defenseman?

Is this too much to ask?

There's a part of me that wants to see a move happen just to see how big the final price tag is.

What would you pay for his services? It's a question I'm going to ask in the days leading up to the trade deadline.



Anonymous said...

If I was a GM looking to acquire him, I'd want to know what Edmonton's position was for next year. That might have a bearing on what the price tag would be.

Jon Keen said...

You could more than assume he's not coming back to the WHL next season. He's signed property.

Anonymous said...

I think your 2nd proposal is more accurate. It may depend on how many teams get involved

Anonymous said...

Siwak, Ferguson, a first, and a third to regina from red deer for eberle

Anonymous said...

why has regina been soo poor the last two sessions when he and Tuebert have been there?

Jon Keen said...

That's not the question tonight. The question is trade value

smackitsakic said...

I don't think that it will easily exceed what the Cougars received, although Eberle may fetch slightly more.

The Blades have two top defensive players from that deal, one of who is 16. Elliott has made big contributions to the Blades for 2+ years and now, nearly 2 years after that deal, they will still have Siemens for at least 2.5 seasons.

I think the Cougars/Blades trade in 07/08 was a bit of an eye-opening trade for some teams as to long-term cost of making such a deal. Seto did help the Cougars go deep into the playoffs that year, but that was an awful steep price to pay for two additional rounds of playoff hockey.

I would be surprised if it is more than 2 firsts in consecutive years and one younger player for Eberle. Two firsts and a lower end pick, 4th or 5th, would be my best guess. Not saying Seto was the junior player that Eberle is, but I also don't think teams will be as willing to unload the future like PG did with the Blades a couple of years back.

Brandon should be the only team willing to pay an extra fee for Eberle's services, but do they even need another scoring forward?

Just my thoughts.

Jon Keen said...

You're right about the Seto trade. It was a big price to pay.

I think Kelly in Brandon is done with their forwards. They may even move one to get a defenseman or two. Just a guess.

This may just all be talk. I think the chances of the Pats moving Eberle are slim. But boy would I like to see the end result.

Anonymous said...

Jon: I remember 1993 when the Broncos sold the farm for Dean McCammond. Those young players and draft picks that went to P.A hurt us for years after.

Anonymous said...

Jon, do you think the Broncos would be interested in getting Vogol from the Rockets? He's a tough kid that plays hard and is only 18.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, that's Gogol.

Jon Keen said...

He's a good, versatile player with some toughness. Probably a few teams he would work well with

smackitsakic said...

Are there even any teams that 'need' Eberle?

The top teams in the league have already separated themselves from the rest of the pack. I can't speak for the West teams as I haven't seen them, but the likes of Calgary/Brandon/Saskatoon likely don't need to give up the future to still have a good shot at the MC tournament in Brandon this year.

Then again, if i'm any of those three teams having Eberle added to the lineup would instantly push that team into the front-runner position.

It'll be interesting to see! I can't see him staying out East if a deal were to be made, and I don't think any fence-sitting teams are going to make a push for the championship this year given the separation in the standings.

Anonymous said...

Eberle to Brandon for Glennie and a first rounder in 2010. For the reasons smackit mentioned, who "needs" Eberle? Brandon has the luxury of being in the mem cup and assuming Windsor gets through the OHL they are the team to beat. Otherwise Parker's price is likely too steep for other teams.
Honestly I hope Parker gets left holding the bag and can't deal Eberle or Tuebert and they both go pro next year and the Pats finish out of the playoffs. But that's just the Bronco fan in me speaking.